Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty | 7:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Dallas is 13-8 and 6-4 in the last ten, the West's fourth seed and one of the league's most dangerous offensive rosters when Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and Azzi Fudd are all clicking. The Wings are +5.5 underdogs at +170, implying approximately 37% win probability in a building where the Liberty have been one of the East's most difficult home environments this season. New York is 13-8 and 6-4 in the last ten, the East's fifth seed, and the Liberty are -5.5 favorites at -205 as they look to build separation in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture. The total at 175.5 reflects what both offenses are capable of producing against defenses that have shown some inconsistency in recent weeks.

New York's roster continues to be shaped by the absence of Satou Sabally, who remains in concussion protocol, but Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones give the Liberty enough frontcourt firepower to control most interior matchups regardless of who else is on the floor. Sabrina Ionescu's perimeter efficiency has been trending upward since the Commissioner's Cup Final, and if she's finding her shot consistently, New York's offense becomes considerably more difficult to load up against defensively. Barclays Center has been one of the more energetic home environments in the league this season, and the Liberty have used that atmosphere to their advantage in close games.

Dallas's path to the upset runs directly through its three-guard perimeter attack. Bueckers, Ogunbowale, and Fudd give the Wings the kind of offensive versatility that makes single coverage schemes nearly impossible to sustain, and if all three are generating simultaneously, New York's defense will have more responsibilities than it can consistently execute. The Wings have been one of the more entertaining road teams in the league this season specifically because of how many different players can beat a defense in isolation.

Dallas wins if Bueckers, Ogunbowale, and Fudd all generate offense simultaneously and force New York into defensive rotations it cannot sustain, the Wings' perimeter shooting keeps the game paced in their favor, and Dallas treats Barclays Center as the kind of road environment their talented roster is equipped to handle.

New York wins if Stewart and Jones control the interior matchup and generate the second-chance opportunities that have been New York's offensive floor all season, Ionescu continues her recent shooting rhythm from the perimeter, and the Liberty's home crowd provides the energy that has made Barclays Center a difficult environment for visiting teams this season.

Prediction: New York -5.5. The Liberty have the interior size advantage and the home environment, and Dallas's perimeter shooting has been inconsistent enough on the road this season to make the 5.5-point cushion a reasonable one. Computer models project New York at approximately 63% win probability, tighter than the -205 moneyline suggests. The over at 175.5 is the more actionable market if Dallas's guards get going early. Liberty win and cover.

Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury | 9:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Chicago is 6-14 and 2-8 in the last ten, the East's 13th seed, but the Sky have shown flashes of competitive offense behind Skylar Diggins even during a difficult stretch. The Sky are +3.5 underdogs at +130, implying approximately 43% win probability against a Phoenix team that is 8-13 and 5-5 in the last ten, the West's 12th seed. The Mercury are -3.5 favorites at -155, and the total at 174.5 reflects what Kahleah Copper's offense can generate against a Chicago defense that has struggled for most of the season.

Phoenix's recent 5-5 stretch has been a meaningful step forward for a roster that spent much of the first half of the season searching for offensive identity. Copper's consistency at just under 20 points per game has been the anchor, and Natasha Mack's interior presence gives the Mercury a rim protection element that Chicago's guards have historically struggled to work around. Phoenix at home has been noticeably better than on the road, and Footprint Center has become a genuinely difficult environment for visiting teams that don't match the Mercury's physicality.

Diggins remains Chicago's best individual weapon and the one player capable of keeping the Sky within striking distance against most Western Conference opponents. Her scoring efficiency against Phoenix's perimeter defenders will determine whether Chicago can cover a manageable 3.5-point spread, and the Sky's recent offensive output, including a 124-point performance against Portland, suggests this roster is capable of scoring in bunches when its shooting is falling.

Chicago wins if Diggins has the kind of individual scoring night that has periodically kept the Sky competitive against quality opponents, Chicago's perimeter shooters build on their recent offensive output, and Phoenix's home form regresses toward its season-long average rather than its recent hot stretch.

Phoenix wins if Copper continues her consistent scoring pace and Mack's interior defense limits Chicago's paint touches, the Mercury's home crowd provides the energy that has made Footprint Center difficult for visiting teams recently, and Phoenix builds on the form that has made them one of the more improved rosters in the league since the season's midpoint.

Prediction: Phoenix -3.5. The Mercury are playing their best basketball of the season at home, and Copper's individual consistency gives them the offensive floor to cover against a Chicago team that has struggled defensively all year. Computer models project Phoenix at approximately 61% win probability, close to the -155 moneyline. The over at 174.5 is worth tracking if both offenses get into rhythm early. Mercury win and cover.