Tuesday's three games all carry the same underlying pressure: someone's playoff run ends tonight, or the team facing elimination finds a way to drag their series to another game. Boston is one win from the second round. The Knicks host Atlanta in a tied series that has swung back and forth. And San Antonio — back at home with Wembanyama healthy — has Portland on the brink of elimination.

Three elimination games, three different narratives. Possible end of the line for two teams.

NBA Top Shot's playoff prediction game is live — head to nbatopshot.com/playoffs to get in on the action.

Here's how it works: wager your spendable credits on playoff outcomes to earn more. Miss your prediction? No sweat — your credits come back to you. Hit? Stack 'em up and redeem for packs, Moments, or merch at nbatopshot.com/playoffs/store.

Review your outcomes, check your credits, and redeploy them the next day (max 1,000 per day). Whether you “load the boat” with your top convictions, or spread out your plays, the goal is to maximize your credits each day.

Consistency will be key in earning credits toward the various rewards. But there are also other opportunities to earn credits to capture the rewards in the store.

Philadelphia 76ers (7) at Boston Celtics (2) | 7:00pm ET, ESPN

Game 5. Boston leads series 3-1.

Joel Embiid returned for Game 4 and scored 26 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in 34 minutes — a genuinely encouraging performance from a man recovering from an emergency appendectomy. The Celtics won by 32. Payton Pritchard scored 32 off the bench. Tatum flirted with a 30-point triple-double. Boston led by 16 after the first quarter and the margin never shrank. Embiid being back mattered for Philadelphia's identity. It didn't matter for the result.

That's the uncomfortable reality the Sixers carry into TD Garden. The version of Boston they're facing — healthy Jays, Pritchard erupting off the bench, a defense that has allowed under 100 points in three of four games — is playing as well as any team in the East right now. Embiid arriving with rust from a three-week absence while the Celtics are operating in full playoff rhythm is a gap that individual talent alone can't bridge. Philadelphia needs Embiid to play more like himself and less like someone reacquainting themselves with competitive basketball — more assertive early, more willing to demand the ball in the post before help arrives.

The Sixers have reasons to believe they can make this game interesting. Maxey has been the first round's most consistently excellent player, Edgecombe has made history with his performances, and George finally delivered in Game 4 with 19 points. When all three are clicking around an Embiid who is aggressive from tip-off, Philadelphia is a different team than the one that played in any of the first four games. The math is still brutal — teams that win Game 5 when leading 3-1 close out the series 96% of the time — and Boston is at home.

Philadelphia wins if Embiid plays 40 assertive minutes, Maxey controls the pace and tempo at both ends, and the Sixers shoot it well enough from three to keep Boston's defense spread across the entire court. A win forces Game 6 in Philadelphia and gives Embiid another full game of playoff rust to shake off. It has happened before.

Boston wins if Tatum and Brown play the way they did in the second half of Game 4 and Pritchard continues his breakout performance off the bench. The Celtics have handled Philadelphia's best efforts in three of four games. Closing it out at home tonight would be a statement about what this team is capable of heading into the second round.

Atlanta Hawks (6) at New York Knicks (3) | 8:00pm ET, NBC

Game 5. Series tied 2-2.

This series has been a story about home court from the beginning — every game has swung back and forth as both teams have won a home and away game. Game 5 returns it to Madison Square Garden. The series is 2-2. Tonight, New York has the homecourt edge and the memory of Game 4's defensive performance to build on.

The Knicks found something in Game 4 that had been missing for most of the series: defensive identity. They held Atlanta to 24.4% from three on 18 turnovers, turned those mistakes into 21 points at the other end, and built the kind of sustained pressure that made the Hawks look like a different team than the one that made two game-winners in a row at MSG. KAT's triple-double was the biggest individual performance of the series, and Anunoby's 22 and 10 showed the Knicks can win games without Brunson being the fulcrum of everything. That's a more complete team than what showed up in Games 2 and 3.

McCollum has averaged 29 points in this series and has hit a game-winning or go-ahead shot in both of Atlanta's two wins. He is the reason this series is tied rather than over. But the Knicks forced the Hawks into 18 turnovers in Game 4 and held McCollum to an inefficient night by the standards he had set in Games 2 and 3. If that version of New York's defense shows up tonight, the series dynamic flips decisively. Alexander-Walker has been inconsistent as a third option alongside McCollum and Johnson — he needs a breakout performance in an environment that has been reliably hostile to Hawks players this entire series.

Atlanta wins if McCollum finds his rhythm against an MSG crowd that genuinely dislikes him at this point and Johnson delivers the kind of complete two-way game he's shown in flashes but hasn't sustained for 48 minutes. Road wins in this series have been impossible so far. Tonight would require both Atlanta stars to play at their absolute ceiling simultaneously.

New York wins if the defensive intensity from Game 4 carries over and Brunson plays with the efficiency that defined his playoff reputation rather than the volume shooting that has plagued him in key moments. A KAT-Brunson pick-and-roll that operates the way it did when it was dominating the regular season gives the Knicks a weapon Atlanta still hasn't solved. MSG in an elimination game is the best environment the Knicks can ask for.

Portland Trail Blazers (7) at San Antonio Spurs (2) | 9:30pm ET, ESPN

Game 5. San Antonio leads series 3-1.

The Spurs pulled off the largest halftime-deficit-to-victory swing in playoff history in Game 4. They trailed by 17 at the break. They won by 21. Wembanyama had 27 points, 11 rebounds, seven blocks, and four steals in his return from the concussion, and the Trail Blazers — who had been playing their best basketball of the series in the first two quarters — completely disintegrated in the second half when San Antonio got healthy and locked in. Fox added 28 and seven assists. De'Aaron Fox plus Wembanyama is, simply put, the highest-ceiling combination on the floor in this series. Layer in Stephon Castle and they’re a force.

Portland is down 3-1 and could only capitalize on Wemby’s absence in one game and were outmatched by Castle & Harper in the other. Now that Wembanyama is healthy, the Trail Blazers have an uphill battle ahead. The Spurs are at the Frost Bank Center, where they went 34-7 during the regular season. Castle and Harper have both had breakout moments that will carry into the second round regardless of tonight's result. This is as complete and motivated a San Antonio team as Portland has faced in four games.

Avdija has been Portland's most reliable performer throughout and needs to deliver a 30-plus-point effort with minimal turnovers if the Blazers are going to survive. Henderson has played well when the environment allows him to attack, and the Moda Center produced his best moments — on the road, against a defense anchored by Wembanyama, the margin for error disappears. Jrue Holiday has been a valuable stabilizing piece off the bench, but his contributions are support-level in a game where Portland needs heroic individual performances.

Portland wins if Avdija plays the best game of his career, Henderson finds his attacking rhythm against Wembanyama's length — something no opposing guard has consistently done this series — and the Blazers manufacture enough second-chance opportunities to offset San Antonio's talent advantage. It's possible. It requires near-perfection.

San Antonio wins if Wembanyama plays anywhere close to his Game 4 level and the Frost Bank Center gives the Spurs the energy of a team closing out a first-round series in front of its own crowd. This franchise hasn't won a playoff series since 2019. Tonight is the chance to end that drought. Castle, Fox, and Harper have already proven they're ready for this moment. With Wemby healthy, there's no reason to expect Portland to find an answer tonight that it hasn't found in four games.

Three games, two potential series-enders, and a first round that has already delivered more than it promised. Boston has the clearest path to advancing — three games up, at home, with their two best players healthy. San Antonio is in nearly identical position with a healthier roster than at any point in the last two weeks. The Knicks and Hawks are the only true coin-flip tonight, a tied series that has produced many memorable moments from game winners to breakout performances.

The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs is almost over. By tomorrow morning, the field could be down two active series. The teams that have already punched their tickets to the second round — and whoever joins them tonight — will have earned it.